[
 {
  "id": "tradematch-wti-2026",
  "publisher": "TradeMatch UK",
  "title": "UK Trade Wait-Time Index 2026",
  "url": "https://tradematch.uk/data/uk-trade-shortage-wait-times-2026",
  "published": "2026-04-21",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "platform data",
  "licence": "CC-BY 4.0 (stated on page)",
  "method": "18,400 lead-to-job-start cycles on the TradeMatch platform, Q3 2025 to Q1 2026. Median gap between first quote accepted and tradesperson starting on site.",
  "caveat": "Data from one lead-generation marketplace with a commercial interest in the topic; not a random sample of all UK jobs. National only, no regional split published.",
  "short": "TradeMatch Wait-Time Index"
 },
 {
  "id": "markel-fixradio-2025",
  "publisher": "Fix Radio (reporting a Markel Direct survey)",
  "title": "Shortage of tradespeople is impacting UK homeowners, study finds",
  "url": "https://www.fixradio.co.uk/fix-feed/construction-news/post/shortage-of-tradespeople-is-impacting-uk-homeowners-study-finds/",
  "published": "2025-07-15",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "homeowner survey",
  "method": "Markel Direct survey of 1,187 UK homeowners (Censuswide). Average wait for a tradesperson to fix an urgent issue, by city.",
  "caveat": "Small per-city samples; urgent repairs only, not planned work. Survey fieldwork pre-dates July 2025.",
  "short": "Markel Direct via Fix Radio"
 },
 {
  "id": "tradesmaninsure-markel-2025",
  "publisher": "TradesmanInsure (reporting the same Markel Direct survey)",
  "title": "Study reveals how the trades shortage is affecting the UK",
  "url": "https://www.tradesmaninsure.co.uk/blog/trade-shortage/",
  "published": "2025-08-14",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "homeowner survey",
  "method": "Same Markel Direct survey as above. Used for the Norwich figure, which is cut off on the Fix Radio page.",
  "caveat": "Secondary report of the Markel survey.",
  "short": "Markel Direct via TradesmanInsure"
 },
 {
  "id": "fixradio-regions-2026",
  "publisher": "South West Connected (Fix Radio analysis of Markel Direct data)",
  "title": "South West homeowners face seven-day waits for urgent repairs as tradie shortages continue to bite",
  "url": "https://swconnected.co.uk/south-west-homeowners-face-seven-day-waits-for-urgent-repairs-as-tradie-shortages-continue-to-bite/",
  "published": "2026-05-15",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "homeowner survey (regional roll-up)",
  "method": "Fix Radio grouped Markel Direct's 17 city-level urgent-repair waits into UK nations and regions.",
  "caveat": "Regional averages are built from one to three cities each, so treat them as indicative. Same release syndicated on niconnected.co.uk and walesconnected.co.uk.",
  "short": "Fix Radio analysis of Markel data"
 },
 {
  "id": "fmb-sot-h2-2025",
  "publisher": "Federation of Master Builders and CIOB",
  "title": "State of Trade Survey H2 2025",
  "url": "https://www.fmb.org.uk/resource/state-of-trade-survey-h2-2025.html",
  "published": "2026-03-31",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "builder survey",
  "method": "493 SME construction firms, covering July to December 2025. Fieldwork 26 Jan to 20 Feb 2026.",
  "caveat": "Net balances are % reporting increase minus % reporting decrease, not % changes.",
  "short": "FMB/CIOB State of Trade H2 2025"
 },
 {
  "id": "cm-fmb-h2-2025",
  "publisher": "Construction Management (CIOB)",
  "title": "Nearly half of builders report job delays amid worsening skills drought, reveals survey",
  "url": "https://constructionmanagement.co.uk/nearly-half-of-builders-report-job-delays-amid-worsening-skills-drought-reveals-survey/",
  "published": "2026-04-01",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "press report of builder survey",
  "method": "Reports FMB/CIOB State of Trade H2 2025.",
  "caveat": "",
  "short": "Construction Management"
 },
 {
  "id": "fmb-sot-h1-2026",
  "publisher": "Federation of Master Builders and CIOB",
  "title": "State of Trade H1 2026: skills, rising costs and AI adoption",
  "url": "https://www.fmb.org.uk/resource/state-of-trade-h1-2026-skills-rising-costs-and-ai-adoption.html",
  "published": "2026-11-10",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "builder survey",
  "method": "416 SME building firms, covering January to June 2026, conducted by Barbour ABI.",
  "caveat": "Net balances, not % changes.",
  "short": "FMB/CIOB State of Trade H1 2026"
 },
 {
  "id": "fmb-scotland-h1-2026",
  "publisher": "Federation of Master Builders",
  "title": "Scotland's builders buck UK slowdown as workloads soar, says FMB",
  "url": "https://www.fmb.org.uk/resource/scotland-s-builders-buck-uk-slowdown-as-workloads-soar-says-fmb.html",
  "published": "2026-11-10",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "builder survey",
  "method": "Nation breakdown of FMB/CIOB State of Trade H1 2026.",
  "caveat": "Net balances.",
  "short": "FMB Scotland"
 },
 {
  "id": "fmb-wales-h1-2026",
  "publisher": "Federation of Master Builders (FMB Cymru)",
  "title": "Welsh builders busy now – but warning lights flash for 2027, says FMB Cymru",
  "url": "https://www.fmb.org.uk/resource/welsh-builders-busy-now-but-warning-lights-flash-for-2027-says-fmb-cymru.html",
  "published": "2026-11-10",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "builder survey",
  "method": "Nation breakdown of FMB/CIOB State of Trade H1 2026.",
  "caveat": "Net balances.",
  "short": "FMB Cymru"
 },
 {
  "id": "citb-cwo-2026-uk",
  "publisher": "CITB",
  "title": "Construction Workforce Outlook 2026-2030: United Kingdom (Labour Market Intelligence Report)",
  "url": "https://www.citb.co.uk/cwo/reports/cwo_report_united_kingdom.pdf",
  "published": "2026-06-17",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "official forecast",
  "method": "Oxford Economics model of output and workforce. 'Annual extra workers' covers growth plus replacement of leavers, 2026-2030 average.",
  "caveat": "A forecast of recruitment need, not a count of live vacancies.",
  "short": "CITB Workforce Outlook"
 },
 {
  "id": "citb-cwo-2026-data",
  "publisher": "CITB",
  "title": "Construction Workforce Outlook website chart data (xlsx, dated 2026.06.11)",
  "url": "https://www.citb.co.uk/cwo/assets/data/website%20chart%20data%202026.06.11.xlsx",
  "published": "2026-06-17",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "official forecast",
  "method": "Nation and English-region workforce (2025 actual, 2030 forecast) and extra recruitment as a % of the 2025 workforce.",
  "caveat": "In the 'Extra Recruitment value' table, the East Midlands and East of England counts appear swapped relative to the % table and workforce sizes, so we use only the % figures for English regions.",
  "short": "CITB Workforce Outlook data"
 },
 {
  "id": "citb-cwo-2026-news",
  "publisher": "CITB",
  "title": "CITB publishes Construction Workforce Outlook 2026-2030",
  "url": "https://www.citb.co.uk/news/updates-insights-and-stories/citb-publishes-construction-workforce-outlook-2026-2030",
  "published": "2026-06-17",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "official forecast",
  "method": "Press release.",
  "caveat": "",
  "short": "CITB"
 },
 {
  "id": "eca-skills-index-2026",
  "publisher": "Electrical Contractors' Association (ECA)",
  "title": "Electrical skills gap deepens as apprenticeship starts fall despite surging demand",
  "url": "https://www.eca.co.uk/news/2026/feb/electrical-skills-gap-deepens-as-apprenticeship-starts-fall-despite-surging-demand",
  "published": "2026-02-09",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "trade body analysis",
  "method": "ECA 2026 Electrical Skills Index, England, 2024/25 academic year.",
  "caveat": "Trade body with a lobbying position.",
  "short": "ECA Electrical Skills Index"
 },
 {
  "id": "nfrc-winter-2026",
  "publisher": "National Federation of Roofing Contractors (NFRC)",
  "title": "NFRC welcomes earlier technical education pathways intention",
  "url": "https://www.nfrc.co.uk/resource/welcomes-technical-education-intention.html",
  "published": "2026-07-28",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "trade body survey",
  "method": "Quotes NFRC State of the UK Roofing Industry report, Winter 2026 (Q1 2026).",
  "caveat": "Members-only survey.",
  "short": "NFRC"
 },
 {
  "id": "cn-nfrc-winter-2026",
  "publisher": "Construction News",
  "title": "Confidence and workloads fall for roofing contractors",
  "url": "https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/sections/data/confidence-and-workloads-fall-for-roofing-contractors-09-07-2026/",
  "published": "2026-07-09",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "trade body survey (press report)",
  "method": "Reports NFRC Winter 2026 survey of 140 members, January to March 2026.",
  "caveat": "% of contractors reporting an increase, not net balances.",
  "short": "NFRC via Construction News"
 },
 {
  "id": "wpi-mcs-heatpump-2025",
  "publisher": "WPI Economics for The MCS Foundation, Aldersgate Group and others",
  "title": "Workforce planning for clean heat: Where will the heat pump workforce come from?",
  "url": "https://mcsfoundation.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Heat-Pump-Workforce-report-1.pdf",
  "published": "2025-11",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "research report",
  "method": "Desk research plus employer survey. Installer counts as of October 2025, England.",
  "caveat": "Installer headcount is an estimate (contractors x 4.8).",
  "short": "WPI Economics for MCS Foundation"
 },
 {
  "id": "bali-lotl-2026",
  "publisher": "British Association of Landscape Industries (BALI)",
  "title": "Lay of the Land 2026 Report",
  "url": "https://www.bali.org.uk/lay-of-the-land-2026/",
  "published": "2026-09-16",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "trade body survey",
  "method": "BALI member survey, second edition.",
  "caveat": "Members only; measures how challenging recruitment is, not waits.",
  "short": "BALI Lay of the Land"
 },
 {
  "id": "ncs-job-profiles",
  "publisher": "National Careers Service (GOV.UK)",
  "title": "Explore careers: job profiles",
  "url": "https://nationalcareers.service.gov.uk/explore-careers",
  "published": "not stated (live pages)",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "official careers guidance",
  "method": "Average starter and experienced salary per job profile, England.",
  "caveat": "Broad national averages; self-employed day rates are not covered.",
  "short": "National Careers Service"
 },
 {
  "id": "spglobal-pmi-2026-10",
  "publisher": "S&P Global (UK Construction PMI, with CIPS)",
  "title": "S&P Global UK Construction PMI, October 2026 news release",
  "url": "https://pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/20c809d6a93e465f8a4687e96a4fa999",
  "published": "2026-11-05",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "business survey index",
  "method": "Monthly survey of construction purchasing managers, data collected 12-29 October 2026. Above 50 = growth on the month.",
  "caveat": "Measures breadth of change, not size.",
  "short": "S&P Global UK Construction PMI"
 },
 {
  "id": "ons-output-2026-08",
  "publisher": "Office for National Statistics",
  "title": "Construction output in Great Britain: August 2026",
  "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/constructionindustry/bulletins/constructionoutputingreatbritain/august2026",
  "published": "2026-10-15",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "official statistics",
  "method": "Monthly business survey, chained volume, seasonally adjusted.",
  "caveat": "Next release 12 November 2026 (includes Q3 new orders).",
  "short": "ONS"
 },
 {
  "id": "ons-output-2026-06",
  "publisher": "Office for National Statistics",
  "title": "Construction output in Great Britain: June 2026, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, April to June 2026",
  "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/constructionindustry/bulletins/constructionoutputingreatbritain/june2026newordersandconstructionoutputpriceindicesapriltojune2026",
  "published": "2026-08-13",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "official statistics",
  "method": "Quarterly new orders, Great Britain.",
  "caveat": "Superseded for output by the August release; still the latest new-orders figure.",
  "short": "ONS"
 },
 {
  "id": "insolvency-2026-09",
  "publisher": "The Insolvency Service (GOV.UK)",
  "title": "Company insolvencies, September 2026",
  "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/company-insolvencies-september-2026",
  "published": "2026-10-20",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "official statistics",
  "method": "Registered company insolvencies, England and Wales.",
  "caveat": "Construction figures below are from Table 1c as reported by BCIS; the GOV.UK summary does not list sectors.",
  "short": "Insolvency Service"
 },
 {
  "id": "bcis-insolvency-2026-09",
  "publisher": "BCIS",
  "title": "Latest construction firm insolvency figures",
  "url": "https://www.bcis.co.uk/news/construction-insolvencies-latest-news/",
  "published": "2026-10-21",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "analysis of official statistics",
  "method": "BCIS reading of Insolvency Service Company Insolvency Statistics September 2026, Tables 1c and 4b.",
  "caveat": "",
  "short": "Insolvency Service via BCIS"
 },
 {
  "id": "rics-cm-2026-q3",
  "publisher": "RICS",
  "title": "RICS UK Construction Monitor Q3 2026",
  "url": "https://www.rics.org/news-insights/rics-uk-construction-monitor-q3-2026",
  "published": "2026-11-05",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "professional survey",
  "method": "Quarterly survey of chartered surveyors (884 responses per BCIS). Net balances.",
  "caveat": "UK-wide; no regional split in the press release.",
  "short": "RICS Construction Monitor"
 },
 {
  "id": "cpa-autumn-2026",
  "publisher": "Construction Products Association (press release reproduced by Floorscape)",
  "title": "Construction Outlook for 2027 Worsens Due to Rising Inflation Risks, Says CPA",
  "url": "https://www.floorscape.org.uk/general/construction-outlook-for-2027-worsens-due-to-rising-inflation-risks-says-cpa/",
  "published": "2026-10-26",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "industry forecast",
  "method": "CPA Autumn 2026 Construction Industry Forecasts (2026-2028). CPA's own listing: https://www.constructionproducts.org.uk/publications/economics/construction-industry-forecasts/",
  "caveat": "One outlet (Building Products Today, via FIS) reports the 2027 total as -0.4%. The CPA press release text says a rise of 0.4%, which is what we use. Worth confirming with CPA.",
  "short": "CPA Autumn forecasts"
 },
 {
  "id": "ableskills-courses",
  "publisher": "Able Skills",
  "title": "Course category pages (prices inc VAT)",
  "url": "https://www.ableskills.co.uk/",
  "published": "live pages",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "course provider",
  "method": "Prices read from category listing pages.",
  "caveat": "Prices change; re-check before publishing."
 },
 {
  "id": "tradeskills4u-bundles",
  "publisher": "Trade Skills 4U",
  "title": "Electrical course bundles",
  "url": "https://tradeskills4u.co.uk/course-bundles",
  "published": "live page",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "course provider",
  "method": "Bundle prices as listed on page.",
  "caveat": "VAT treatment not stated next to prices."
 },
 {
  "id": "logic4training-new-entrants",
  "publisher": "Logic4training",
  "title": "New Entrants training courses",
  "url": "https://www.logic4training.co.uk/new-entrants/",
  "published": "live page",
  "checked": "2026-11-10",
  "kind": "course provider",
  "method": "Lists new-entrant routes for plumber, gas engineer, electrician.",
  "caveat": "No prices shown on the page we checked."
 }
]