Why heat pump installers are still booked up while other trades go quiet
By The Busy Busy Index team · Published 11 Nov 2026 · Every figure links to its source
Most of the building trade is getting quieter. Heat pump installers are the exception: they have the longest queue of any common home trade, and it was still growing. Here's what the figures say, and why.
The longest wait of any common home trade
TradeMatch tracked 18,400 jobs on its platform between mid-2025 and early 2026. The median wait from accepting a quote to a heat pump installer starting on site was 14 weeks, and the slowest 10% of jobs waited 22 weeks (TradeMatch Wait-Time Index, 21 Apr 2026). That's the longest of the 12 common trades it lists. An extension builder came next at 10 weeks, and a painter and decorator was shortest at 2 weeks.
The wait was also getting longer. TradeMatch says heat pump waits stretched by 2 to 4 weeks year on year, along with loft conversions, EV chargers and extensions. Waits for general plumbing, electrics and decorating did not. It rates heat pump installation a "severe shortage" (TradeMatch Wait-Time Index, 21 Apr 2026).
One caveat: these figures come from a single lead-generation platform, not a random sample of every UK job. They're a useful guide, not an official statistic. See our methodology.
Why heat pumps are bucking the slowdown
The rest of the home improvement market is shrinking. The Construction Products Association expects private housing repair, maintenance and improvement spending to fall 8% in 2026. In the same forecast, it says solar PV, heat pump activity and fire safety work "continue to provide growth" (CPA Autumn forecasts, 26 Oct 2026).
TradeMatch puts the demand partly down to the £7,500 Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant. On the supply side, it points to the time it takes to get certified: 6 to 12 months for an electrician or plumber to add the MCS certification (TradeMatch Wait-Time Index, 21 Apr 2026).
How many installers are there?
Fewer than you might think. A November 2025 report by WPI Economics for The MCS Foundation and others found 1,801 MCS-certified heat pump contractors in England as of October 2025. MCS estimates each one employs 4.8 installers on average, which the report uses to estimate about 8,645 MCS-accredited installers in England (WPI Economics for MCS Foundation, Nov 2025). That's an estimate, not a headcount.
The same report quotes some bigger numbers:
- The Heat Pump Association estimates around 25,500 people completed an eligible heat pump training course between 2022 and the third quarter of 2025. That's far more than are certified installers.
- The Heat Pump Association estimated the installer workforce would need to grow to 41,143 full-time equivalents to meet the previous Government's target of 600,000 installations a year by 2028.
- WPI's own analysis found nearly 47,000 people already have the relevant skills to install heat pumps, though they may not have heat pump-specific training or qualifications.
(All from WPI Economics for MCS Foundation, Nov 2025.) So the skills exist in the wider workforce. The bottleneck is turning them into certified, working installers. The report quotes a mid-scheme review of the Heat Training Grant that found just 27% of those surveyed had installed a heat pump since finishing their training. It also cites survey evidence that 51% of plumbers and heating engineers, and 48% of electricians, have no intention of upskilling to install heat pumps, mostly because training is hard to fit around existing work (WPI Economics for MCS Foundation, Nov 2025).
For scale, the report says the Heat Pump Association estimated 98,345 heat pumps were installed in UK homes in 2024. The MCS Data Dashboard recorded 43,109 MCS-certified installations that year (WPI Economics for MCS Foundation, Nov 2025).
What it means if you want a heat pump
- Plan ahead. On TradeMatch's figures, a typical job starts around three months after you accept a quote, and some take five months or more. If you're replacing a boiler that's on its last legs, start looking well before it fails.
- Timing may help. TradeMatch says October to December usually has the shortest waits across most trades (TradeMatch Wait-Time Index, 21 Apr 2026).
- Check certification. Ask whether the installer is MCS-certified. The waits above are for certified installers.
What it means if you're thinking of retraining
Heat pumps are one of the few home trades where the published figures point to demand still outrunning supply. The National Careers Service gives average pay for a heat pump engineer as £24,000 a year for starters, rising to £46,000 with experience (National Careers Service, not stated (live pages)). The apprenticeship route is the Low Carbon Heating Technician (Level 3).
Plumbers make up the biggest slice of the potential workforce: WPI counts about 21,500 potential heat pump jobs among plumbers and 11,000 among electricians (WPI Economics for MCS Foundation, Nov 2025). So if you're already in plumbing, heating or electrics, adding heat pumps is a shorter step than starting from scratch. CITB says the UK needs about 1,570 extra plumbing and HVAC workers a year to 2030 (CITB Workforce Outlook, 17 Jun 2026). Our guide to becoming a heat pump installer covers the routes.
A word of caution: a lot of this demand rests on grants and government targets, which can change. That's worth weighing before you spend money on courses.
What we're watching
We're looking for newer wait-time and installer figures, ideally split by region. If you install heat pumps, tell us how far ahead you're booked. It's anonymous and takes two questions.
Sources
- Construction Workforce Outlook 2026-2030: United Kingdom (Labour Market Intelligence Report), CITB, 17 Jun 2026
- Construction Outlook for 2027 Worsens Due to Rising Inflation Risks, Says CPA, Construction Products Association (press release reproduced by Floorscape), 26 Oct 2026
- Explore careers: job profiles, National Careers Service (GOV.UK), not stated (live pages)
- UK Trade Wait-Time Index 2026, TradeMatch UK, 21 Apr 2026
- Workforce planning for clean heat: Where will the heat pump workforce come from?, WPI Economics for The MCS Foundation, Aldersgate Group and others, Nov 2025